Moneyline betting strategies

Nov 30,2021 at 04:55 pm

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We hope that in the previous article we cleared all your doubts about moneyline betting. Now it's time to move on to the most popular strategies when it comes to this type of betting.

The skill of finding valuebets

The most important thing is to understand what a valuebet is and use all its advantages. A valuebet is any bet that has a higher value than the real one. If you learn to recognize it, you will be making money in the long run.

Most people focus on the win-loss rate and they waste too much time on that, but that doesn't have too much impact on the long-term success. You can have more wins than losses, and still do badly.

On the other hand, you can lose more bets than you win, and again earn a lot of money. It all comes down to finding valuebets successfully.

If you are serious about mastering the strategy of finding valuebets, we strongly recommend that you read our article.

Stop chasing winning bets and start chasing profit.


Timely and successful prediction

The better you can predict when the odds on a particular line will change and in which direction, the more profitable you will be. If you find an odd that you like, but you estimate that it will change in your favor, wait and earn money.

Odds on the final outcome tend to change quite a bit until the start of a match or fight, in both directions. This type of betting plays with your nerves and patience and you will have to learn how to master them if you want to make money. You will make a profit every day, and the point is to learn how to recognize and use that chance to earn.

Study the odds and their changes every day. Keep track of which bets tend to become public. Simply try to make the most of each bet.

Be careful with huge favorites

Whenever you estimate that there is a valuebet, feel free to place a bet. But be aware of the potential danger of large payments on matches or fights that can bring you a small profit. Even though you would technically make a profit, you will not get the maximum, and you will risk a lot.


For example, you are convinced that Manchester City will beat Norwich at home and their victory is valued at odds of 1.03. You are willing to invest €100, which means you have a potential income of €3. You will have a return on investment of 3%, which is good, but if you want to earn a more serious amount, you will have to invest at least €1000, which is a big risk.

Whether this is worth it or not is up to you.

Probability estimation

When we look at the odds on each moneyline betting outcome, we know this allows us to calculate how much we will earn if make a successful prediction. Also, we can calculate what our chances of winning are in terms of percentages. This is called probability estimation.

This is an extensive topic that we will analyze more thoroughly in one of our following articles, but we will do our best to explain the essence to you now.

If a bookmaker gives a team, a player or a fighter a 40% chance of winning, and you think it’s actually 45%, then there is a valuebet. Remember, bookmakers will always pay more for those less expected outcomes.


Now you may be wondering "How is it possible to determine the chances of a team winning?". Here is one model:

If two teams play 10 matches against each other, how many times do you think the home team will win? If you think six times, it means that the probability that they will win in every duel is 60%. If you look at each match as a multiple clash of two teams, you will find it easier to understand and recognize the valuebet. You only need to compare that percentage with the one determined by the bookmakers. If there is a valuebet, grab it.

For example, let's look again at the Manchester City-Norwich clash. The odds for the home team to win are 1.03, which means that the bookmakers have determined the probability of the home team winning at 97%. If you think the odds that Manchester City will defeat the opponent are 100%, there’s your valuebet. But you will still have to invest a lot of money to make a profit.

The same goes for big outsiders. The odds for Norwich to beat Manchester City are 36.00, which means that their chances of winning are only 3%. Should you bet? It depends. If you are able to bet like this only once, you will probably lose. The probability says that the visiting team will win only three out of a hundred matches!

That is why you need to have a developed strategy that will allow you to try out this bet, but if you miss it, it should not affect your balance in the long run. Therefore, it is very important to study the potential that valubets bring thoroughly, and you can learn how to do this at the following link.

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